The latest data from the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) present a worrying picture of the state of the Scottish high street. In their words:
"Total sales in November were 1.3% down on November 2010, when they had increased 3.4%. This was the worst fall in total sales for any month since the survey began in 1999. Like-for-like sales were 2.1% lower than a year ago, the worst since August and the sixth decline in the past seven months."
This weakening in household spending is in line with our forecasts in November but the rate of contraction comes sooner and is faster than we expected.
To be certain that these data are providing an accurate picture of Scottish retail spending we need to benchmark a seasonally adjusted series against the household spending data published by the Scottish Government's Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP). However, the SRC do not appear to publish a long run of the data. More data are behind a pay wall. But releasing the aggregate time series data would help analysis and reinforce the public's perception of the value of the survey, without prejudice to the commercial interests of SRC.
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