Independence Fact No. 4

Scotland's exports to rest of UK account for 70% of its exports. Rest of UK exports to Scotland account for 11% of its exports.

 

Memo

• In 2012, Scottish exports to rest UK amounted to £48bn while rest of UK exports to Scotland were £59bn.
• The USA is Scotland's next important export market but is around 12 times less important than rest of UK.
• Estimate rest of UK exports to be £531bn: £493 UK exports plus £59 billion to Scotland minus £21bn exports from Scotland to rest of world.

Evidence

• Scottish Global Connections Survey 2011
• Scottish National Accounts Project
• Office for National Statistics, Balance of Payments Q2 2013

Comments

[Ian Jenkins]

If a nation's politicians are unwilling for some reason to enlist international politics to lead the global market to observe minimum political standards - as seems likely - then we're left with the default setting. The chairman of the City Growth Commission therefore recommends concentrating on supply-side factors such as education, skills, training and infrastructure.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/prosperity-lives-in-the-city.html

However these recommendations are unlikely to increase global demand. Youth unemployment (15-24) is: Middle East/N Africa 41%; S Asia 31%; Eurasia 24%; Latin America 23%; Sub-Saharan Africa 22%; E Asia 18%; OECD 15%.
Analysed further: Greece 58%; Spain 55%; Portugal 40%; Italy 38%; France 25%; UK 21%; US 16%; Germany 8%; Japan 8% Global total: 300m (25%)

[openminded]

I would refer to you comment below, can you confirm if the Scottish export figure excludes North Sea Oil revenues between Scotland and the rest of the UK, as this has traditionally been allocated to the UK.

'In 2012, Scottish exports to rest UK amounted to £48bn while rest of UK exports to Scotland were £59bn.'

I appreciate that the attempt to apportion this North Sea Oil revenue on a geographic basis is under way and is being compiled by economists at the Scottish Government. The BBC reported recently - 'Described as "experimental", their figures for 2012 showed £12.8bn sales to the rest of the UK.' If correct this would balance exports between and the rest of the UK.

Can you advise if any work has been done on the value of imports to Scotland from the UK which are included within the £59 billion that would change description when Distribution Rights for imported goods are held by Companies based in Scotland. Obviously this would also generate considerable employment and Tax Revenue.

[openminded]

I was wondering when Independence No. 5 will be published, now that North Sea Oil revenues have been adjusted to source, rather than credited to the UK.

The revised figures show that Scotland exports to rUK amounts to £58.3b and totals almost £100b making Scotland one of the top 35 exporters in the world.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fff67a62-88fa-11e3-bb5f-00144feab7de.html#axzz2taTc72rw