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23 June 2014


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"Higher population growth requires comparable growth in public services and hence public spending" - only if demographic profile is same. However migrant demographics are systematically younger than non migrants and so there is very little need to pay for extra old age pensions and increased age related health costs in respect of the additional population implied by an extra 2% on GDP due to inward migration.

Brian Ashcroft

I agree about the age profile of migrants and implications for higher spending due to ageing population. But immigrant families have a higher birth rate I believe and so have a greater demand for maternity healthcare than the average; maybe also greater demand for schools spending etc. So, I don't see need to change my statement. However, if you have data on the differential public expenditure needs and tax contributions of migrants I would be keen to see it and post it here.


HIPC received debt forgiveness because of the burden of payments on growth; saddled with debt meant that they could not grow or grow well.

The UK and an independent Scotland, if there is a yes vote, cannot be called an HIPC but the debt principle remains the same. At least it would appear so; the less paid on debt repayments would mean more growth.

The avoidance of a new currency is to avoid the debt element in the value of the currency. Which is probably very wise if it can be achieved.

Good blog and very objective.

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