The latest Scottish labour market statistics published this morning serve further to reinforce the view that a more sustained recovery is now underway.
Employment during the quarter to Dec - Feb 2013 rose by 39,000, or 1.6%, and by 20,000 over the year, 0.8%. In the UK, employment was almost flat, falling slightly by just over two thousand. But over the year, the growth in UK jobs was strong than in Scotland, rising by 1.7%.
Despite this improvement, which is significant, jobs in Scotland are still -2.1% below their pre-recession peak, whereas in the UK jobs are 0.4% above their pre-recession peak. The Scottish jobs position is shown in the chart below
Unemployment fell in Scotland during the quarter by -11,000, or -5.2%. In the UK, in contrast, unemployment rose by 70,000, or 2.8%. The measured ILO unemployment rate is now 7.3% in Scotland compared to a much higher rate of 7.9% in the UK. Over the year, unemployment has fallen by -21,000, or -9.8%. In the UK the number unemployed fell by -71,000 over the year, or -2.7%, a much slower rate of decline than in Scotland.
One factor that has tended to flatter the Scottish unemployment figures compared to the UK has been the rise in the number of inactive workers, which has been stronger here. This has tended to depress the measured Scottish unemployment rate compared to the UK. However, in the most recent quarter the number inactive fell by -23,000, or -1.5%, whereas in the UK inactive numbers rose by more than 25,000, or 0.1%.
The fall in inactive numbers has reduced my estimate of the 'real' level of unemployment; see earlier blogs, as the chart shows
'Real' unemployment is now 55,000 higher, at 9.1%, than measured unemployment compared to 78,000, at 10.4% in the previous quarter.
The latest jobs and unemployment data are encouraging and taken with the latest GDP data, see forthcoming blog, do suggest that the Scottish economy is recovering if slowly from the recessionary period.
However, it is worth sounding a note of caution. From the latest data, to December 2012, it appears that full-time employment continues to fall, with jobs growth driven by the growth of the part-time and self-employed. As I noted here we can only be certain of a sustained recovery in the Scottish labour market when the number of full-time employees begins progressively to rise.
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