The latest Scottish retail sales index for the final quarter of 2011, which was published today, reveals growth of sales volumes at basic prices(seasonally adjusted) of 0.7% compared to growth of 0.9% in Great Britain. However, over the year the volume of sales grew by 0.7% compared to a 0.3% increase in GB. This latter figure allows John Swinney to claim that not only is Scotland outperforming the rest of Britain but it
underlines the importance of the measures we are taking to enhance economic and consumer confidence in the face of difficult trading conditions.
A close look at the data suggests the position is more nuanced than that. The following chart shows the quarterly growth in retail sales volumes as a four-quarter moving average.
What is clear is that sales growth is still on a downward trend in both Scotland and GB due to the recession. A stronger recovery would have flattened the trend or reversed it in a positive direction. The downward trend in Scotland is slightly stronger than in the GB, so there is little for the Scottish government to crow about.
It looks as if it will be some time yet before sales growth in both Scotland and the GB gets back to more 'normal' rates over a sustained period.
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