David Bell has a good article in the Scotsman today on the outlook for the Scottish economy in 2012 and the pitfalls we may confront along the way. I agree with almost everything he says. The Scottish economy will like the UK and the rest of Europe be weak in 2012. David suggests that
Output in Scotland and in the UK as a whole have moved closely together since the beginning of the recession. There are no compelling reasons to expect divergence in 2012. The average City forecast for UK output growth in 2012 is 0.6 per cent growth. If this is accurate, then Scotland is likely to experience another year of anaemic growth.
The only caveat I would make is that while Scottish output has moved closely with the UK since the recession the fit is not exact. UK GDP has come back somewhat more strongly than Scotland, as the chart shows, even though the recovery is weak overall.
Comments