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11 December 2012

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Ian Jenkins

"There is no reason at all to assume that the jobs gained from export creation would exceed the jobs lost to import competition. Globalization is not the answer to the Lesser Depression."

You may be interested in other views from the US on this.

There is little chance of a strong economic recovery that will create the millions of new jobs necessary to get America back to full employment and rising wages and living standards. Of the jobs created in the US between 1990 and 2008, 98% were in the non-tradable sectors of the economy, especially in government, the health care industry and home construction. http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/31/a_sign_of_a_coming_obama_failure

In the absence of enforceable rules for a sustainable global political economy, we seem to be left with 1930's style beggar-thy-neighbour regulatory arbitrage in finance - what the Governor of the Bank of England alluded to yesterday in New York.

Ian Jenkins

Recent developments.

How to address the lack of demand?

First stage deglobalisation. This week Reuters organised a presentation on the fall of capitalism. The news organisation invited US academics/consultants Ian Bremmer [geopolitical risks] and Nouriel Roubini [macro finance] to give their 2013 predictions for politics and the economy - with a US slant.

IB reckoned that politics - mainly security interests - are coming to the fore. Political groupings of like-minded nations will form, with the US inspired Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal as an example of the way ahead.

NR supported this view by saying that agreement on the values that should be promoted in the global economy is proving impossible: 'there's no agreement on fiscal policy, on monetary policy, on exchange rates, on global imbalances, on reform and regulation of the banks, on the financial system, on the role of the dollar, on climate change, on energy, food security, let alone the big geopolitical issues of the world - there will be lots of volatility going forward; much disagreement.'

So financial deglobalisation seems inevitable - but how global investment will be unwound as a consequence [a huge problem for the US especially]- was not discussed.

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