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30 April 2012

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Brian C Pope

Disappointing reading, but I appreciate the analysis Brian. It would be interesting if a survey was carried out on the effect of negative economic articles in the press (or as I refer to as the ‘Recessionary Slumber’ in my blog) on growth and business confidence in Scotland – if you think this has a significant impact or not?

Thegreenplace

Brian, the trend lines are so close together in both cases, it's hardly worth discussing the difference. I'm not really clear what point you are trying to make, except that clearly being part of the UK has done Scotland no good whatsoever over the last few years.

Brian Ashcroft

It appears that you only see what you want to see. The graphs are not 'trend lines' but plots of Scottish and UK GVA/GDP relative to where the econonomies were at before the recession started. Because the overall GVA series does not compare like with like when comparing Scotland and the UK, a more appropriate comparison is with oil and gas extraction removed. When this is done the Scottish recovery from the trough of the recession is weaker relative to the UK because the weakness of oil production dampens the UK recovery. If you want numbers: when overall GVA is compared, the Scottish recovery is 85% of the UK recovery. When oil and gas are excluded the Scottish recovery is weaker at 80%. Not a dramatic difference but a difference nonetheless. I don't think this has anything to do with the independence question. Although, CPPR make the point that if you assign a geographical share of oil to Scotland then Scottish GDP would have fallen by 3% last year whereas rest of UK GDP would have risen by 1%. The counter to that is that the level of Scottish GDP would be higher with a geographic share of oil, although GDP would be more volatile.

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